Chile's diesel price set to rise CLP 90 per litre on October 22, adding up to a CLP 400 increase since July

The diesel price in Chile is set to jump again. Economists consulted by Emol expect diesel to rise about CLP 90 per litre and gasoline around CLP 41 on Thursday, October 22. If confirmed, it would be the fifth consecutive increase, and diesel would be up roughly CLP 400 per litre since late July, according to a calculation published by El Mostrador.

These are projections. The state oil company ENAP will publish the official changes on Wednesday, October 21, and they take effect the next day. This week there were no changes: ENAP's report for Thursday, October 15 set the variation for 93 and 97 octane gasoline and for diesel at CLP 0, and only kerosene went up, by CLP 5.1 per litre, according to El Desconcierto.

The estimates come from two analysts. Juan Ortiz, an economist at Universidad Diego Portales' Economic Context Observatory (OCEC-UDP), expects gasoline to rise CLP 41.3 per litre and diesel close to CLP 90. Emanoelle Santos, a markets analyst at XTB, has a central scenario of CLP 40 for gasoline and CLP 90 for diesel, depending on the dollar, refined product prices and the parameters of the stabilization mechanism.

The previous adjustment, on October 1, was already steep: 93 octane gasoline rose CLP 39.4 per litre and diesel CLP 95, according to ENAP as cited by Emol. In practice, filling a 50-litre tank would cost about CLP 20,000 more with diesel and about CLP 7,500 more with gasoline than in late July, according to El Mostrador.

Three factors are behind the increase. The first is crude oil: Brent went from USD 102 to USD 105.8 per barrel in one week, and the dollar averaged about CLP 982, according to Ortiz. The second is the conflict in the Middle East. According to consultancy Quaos, cited by Emol, the Strait of Hormuz is closed, Bab el-Mandeb is only selectively open and weekly crude export volumes fell 54%. Quaos estimates that diesel reference prices are up 129% this year.

The third is Chile's Fuel Price Stabilization Mechanism (Mepco), which adjusts prices every three weeks and gradually passes through the gap between the base price and the wholesale price. That gap exceeds CLP 300 per litre for gasoline and is close to CLP 300 for diesel, so more increases are pending even if international prices stop rising.

Internationally, the governing board of the International Energy Agency (IEA) agreed on Thursday, October 15 to speed up the release of more than 20 million barrels of diesel from strategic reserves, according to Reporte Minero. In March, the 32 member countries committed more than 400 million barrels of crude and products, and about 330 million have been released so far. A Sparta Commodities analyst told Reuters the announcement seems to accelerate existing commitments rather than add new volumes.

Diesel powers most freight transport, buses and many delivery fleets. That is why the increase hits companies harder than private cars, most of which run on gasoline. The table shows how much more it costs to drive 100 kilometres with the projected CLP 90 and with the cumulative CLP 400, based on each vehicle's typical consumption (our own calculation with reference consumption figures).

For a truck that drives 10,000 kilometres a month, the cumulative CLP 400 means about CLP 1.4 million more in fuel every month. It is the kind of math pushing companies to look at electric vehicles, whose cost per kilometre depends on electricity rates rather than oil. We list the cheapest models in electric car prices in Chile 2026.

The government has responded with targeted payments. The Senate unanimously approved a bill that extends until December 2026 the CLP 100,000 monthly payment for taxis, shared taxis (colectivos), school transport and artisanal fishers, and creates a new one, also CLP 100,000 a month from October to December, for owners of artisanal boats up to 12 metres long, according to Revista Electricidad. The bill went to the Chamber of Deputies on October 1.

• Taxis, colectivos and school transport: CLP 100,000 a month, extended until December.
• Artisanal fishers: same amount; the new payment for boats can only be used for fuel.
• Trucks and transport companies: the bill does not include a specific payment for them.
• Fogape: a capital injection of up to CLP 300 billion to guarantee business loans.

For fleets, electrification remains the long-term alternative. Hybrids are a middle step for private buyers: we rank the cheapest hybrid cars in Chile in 2026, from mild hybrids to plug-ins.

ENAP publishes its reference price report every Wednesday, and gasoline and diesel are adjusted every three weeks. The state company stresses that it does not set final prices: distributors decide the price at each service station, so what you see at the pump can vary between municipalities and brands. To compare stations, Chile's National Energy Commission runs the Bencina en Línea website.

Electric car drivers are outside this debate: their energy cost depends on the power bill, which, according to preliminary CNE figures, would fall 4.3% on average from January 2027.

How much will diesel rise on October 22?

Projections from OCEC-UDP and XTB point to about CLP 90 per litre, within a CLP 80 to 100 range. ENAP announces the official figure on Wednesday, October 21.

How much has diesel risen since July?

If the October 22 increase is confirmed, diesel would be up about CLP 400 per litre since late July, according to El Mostrador. The October 1 adjustment alone was CLP 95.

Why don't prices fall if reserves are being released?

Because Mepco gradually passes through a gap of more than CLP 300 per litre between the base and wholesale prices. Also, the IEA release speeds up March commitments, and crude remains above USD 100 per barrel.

Who gets a payment for higher fuel prices?

Taxis, colectivos, school transport and artisanal fishers, with CLP 100,000 a month until December 2026 if the bill completes its passage in the Chamber.