Fossil fuel CO2 emissions are projected to fall 0.4% in 2026, to about 38.2 billion tonnes, according to the Global Carbon Budget 2026, the annual assessment by more than a hundred scientists led by Pierre Friedlingstein of the University of Exeter. The report was published on November 10 in the journal Earth System Science Data, during the first week of COP31 in Antalya, Türkiye, which runs until November 20.
The decline is small and not guaranteed: the projection ranges from a 1.5% fall to a 0.6% rise. According to the Global Carbon Budget, the drop in oil (−1.9%) largely reflects the energy shock from the Iran conflict, while coal keeps rising (+0.6%). Friedlingstein warned that a reduction driven by geopolitical shocks is not a sustainable climate solution.
View the data as a table
| Fossil CO2 in 2026 | 38.2 Gt |
| Total CO2 incl. land use | 43.3 Gt |
| CO2 in the atmosphere | 427.7 ppm |
| Remaining 1.5 °C budget | 150 Gt |
CO2 emissions in 2026, by fuel and by country
Major economies are falling, except India. China, the largest emitter, would fall 0.9%; the United States, 1.3%; the European Union, 1.5%, and Japan, 1%. India would rise 4.4%. The rest of the world would fall 0.7%.
| Component | Projected change in 2026 |
|---|---|
| World fossil total | −0.4% (38,200 Mt) |
| Oil | −1.9% |
| Natural gas | −0.3% |
| Coal | +0.6% |
| China | −0.9% |
| United States | −1.3% |
| European Union | −1.5% |
| Japan | −1.0% |
| India | +4.4% |
| Rest of world | −0.7% |
Source: Global Carbon Budget 2026 (November 10, 2026).
Adding emissions from land-use change, mostly deforestation, which would rise to 5.1 billion tonnes, total CO2 would reach 43.3 billion tonnes in 2026, more than the 42.8 billion of the previous year. Atmospheric CO2 would reach 427.7 parts per million, 54% above pre-industrial levels.
The 1.5 °C carbon budget is running out
The report's toughest figure is the remaining carbon budget: for a 50% chance of limiting warming to 1.5 °C, the world can emit only about 150 billion tonnes more of CO2. At current rates, that will be used up in less than four years. The land sink, which weakened during the 2023-2024 El Niño, returned to previous levels.
A parallel analysis in Nature Climate Change, led by Corinne Le Quéré of the University of East Anglia, concludes that clean energy growth is still not enough for a lasting decline in fossil emissions. How much of the world's power still comes from coal is in our ranking of the countries generating the most coal power.
Chile's CO2 emissions rose 3.1% in 2025
The report's country dataset, National Fossil Carbon Emissions 2026, estimates that Chile emitted 76.3 million tonnes of fossil CO2 in 2025, 3.1% more than the 74.0 million of 2024. It breaks the trend: the country had been falling since its peak of 92.0 million in 2019, and it is still 17% below that level.
The main reason is electricity. 2025 was drier: hydropower generation fell from 26.0 to 19.7 TWh and coal generation rose from 13.6 to 15.7 TWh, according to Ember's annual data. As a result, power sector emissions went from 23.1 to 25.7 million tonnes of CO2e. How drought shapes Chile's power mix is shown in September's generation figures.
| Country | 2024 (Mt CO2) | 2025 (Mt CO2) | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brazil | 490.7 | 496.7 | +1.2% |
| Mexico | 471.5 | 470.9 | −0.1% |
| Argentina | 179.0 | 176.2 | −1.6% |
| Colombia | 106.3 | 96.1 | −9.6% |
| Chile | 74.0 | 76.3 | +3.1% |
| Peru | 68.1 | 69.0 | +1.3% |
Source: Global Carbon Budget 2026, National Fossil Carbon Emissions v0.1, territorial emissions from fossil fuels and cement. The file gives figures in million tonnes of carbon; we converted them to CO2 by multiplying by 3.664, as the report itself indicates.
View the data as a table
| Chile | |
|---|---|
| 2005 | 61.3 Mt |
| 2006 | 64.2 Mt |
| 2007 | 70.6 Mt |
| 2008 | 70.7 Mt |
| 2009 | 65.9 Mt |
| 2010 | 71.5 Mt |
| 2011 | 78.4 Mt |
| 2012 | 79.6 Mt |
| 2013 | 81.6 Mt |
| 2014 | 77.8 Mt |
| 2015 | 81.8 Mt |
| 2016 | 84.5 Mt |
| 2017 | 84.5 Mt |
| 2018 | 84.7 Mt |
| 2019 | 92.0 Mt |
| 2020 | 80.6 Mt |
| 2021 | 84.0 Mt |
| 2022 | 82.7 Mt |
| 2023 | 75.2 Mt |
| 2024 | 74.0 Mt |
| 2025 | 76.3 Mt |
Chile ranks 47th among countries, with 0.2% of world fossil emissions. China emitted 12,417 million tonnes in 2025, the United States 5,036 million and India 3,203 million. How electricity use compares across countries is in our ranking of electricity consumption per capita.
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| People's Republic of China | 12,417.5 Mt |
| United States | 5,035.6 Mt |
| India | 3,203.4 Mt |
| Russia | 1,766.7 Mt |
| Japan | 960.2 Mt |
| Iran | 855.3 Mt |
| Indonesia | 821.8 Mt |
| Saudi Arabia | 638.3 Mt |
| South Korea | 580.6 Mt |
| Germany | 573.5 Mt |
| Canada | 547.3 Mt |
| Brazil | 496.7 Mt |
| Türkiye | 485.9 Mt |
| Mexico | 470.9 Mt |
| Australia | 378.8 Mt |
| Vietnam | 374.7 Mt |
| United Kingdom | 319.9 Mt |
| Kazakhstan | 310.0 Mt |
| Malaysia | 306.4 Mt |
| Italy | 293.9 Mt |
| Poland | 283.7 Mt |
| Thailand | 256.5 Mt |
| France | 255.4 Mt |
| Iraq | 255.0 Mt |
| Taiwan | 250.1 Mt |
| Egypt | 247.3 Mt |
| United Arab Emirates | 235.3 Mt |
| Pakistan | 211.8 Mt |
| Spain | 210.5 Mt |
| Algeria | 206.6 Mt |
| Argentina | 176.2 Mt |
| Philippines | 169.2 Mt |
| Nigeria | 142.3 Mt |
| Ukraine | 138.8 Mt |
| Uzbekistan | 126.6 Mt |
| Netherlands | 116.3 Mt |
| Bangladesh | 115.9 Mt |
| Kuwait | 112.9 Mt |
| Venezuela | 101.7 Mt |
| Qatar | 98.1 Mt |
| Colombia | 96.1 Mt |
| Oman | 89.3 Mt |
| Belgium | 87.0 Mt |
| Turkmenistan | 85.9 Mt |
| Czech Republic | 78.0 Mt |
| Libya | 77.6 Mt |
| Chile | 76.3 Mt |
| Morocco | 71.8 Mt |
| Peru | 69.0 Mt |
| Romania | 63.2 Mt |
| North Korea | 62.0 Mt |
| Israel | 58.9 Mt |
| Austria | 55.2 Mt |
| Singapore | 54.1 Mt |
| Greece | 53.8 Mt |
| Belarus | 53.1 Mt |
| Ecuador | 45.7 Mt |
| Serbia | 42.4 Mt |
| Mongolia | 41.7 Mt |
| Sweden | 40.0 Mt |
| Azerbaijan | 38.4 Mt |
| Hungary | 38.2 Mt |
| Bahrain | 37.0 Mt |
| Portugal | 36.9 Mt |
| Norway | 36.5 Mt |
| Myanmar | 35.2 Mt |
| Dominican Republic | 34.5 Mt |
| Bulgaria | 33.8 Mt |
| Tunisia | 32.7 Mt |
| Ireland | 31.7 Mt |
| Switzerland | 31.1 Mt |
| New Zealand | 31.0 Mt |
| Hong Kong | 30.5 Mt |
| Trinidad and Tobago | 29.4 Mt |
| Finland | 29.1 Mt |
| Syrian Arab Republic | 29.0 Mt |
| Slovakia | 28.5 Mt |
| Cambodia | 27.7 Mt |
| Jordan | 27.2 Mt |
| Bolivia | 26.1 Mt |
| Ghana | 25.6 Mt |
| Denmark | 24.4 Mt |
| Lao People's Democratic Republic | 24.1 Mt |
| Cuba | 23.7 Mt |
| Angola | 23.6 Mt |
| Kenya | 23.0 Mt |
| Guatemala | 21.3 Mt |
| United Republic of Tanzania | 19.6 Mt |
| Sri Lanka | 19.5 Mt |
| Croatia | 19.2 Mt |
| Ethiopia | 19.0 Mt |
| Yemen | 19.0 Mt |
| Bosnia and Herzegovina | 18.7 Mt |
| Cote d'Ivoire | 18.7 Mt |
| Zimbabwe | 17.4 Mt |
| Lebanon | 16.7 Mt |
| Nepal | 16.1 Mt |
| Senegal | 14.4 Mt |
| Honduras | 13.6 Mt |
| Sudan | 12.9 Mt |
| Panama | 12.6 Mt |
| Kyrgyzstan | 12.4 Mt |
| Georgia | 12.1 Mt |
| Lithuania | 11.9 Mt |
| Slovenia | 11.9 Mt |
| Tajikistan | 11.8 Mt |
| Zambia | 11.8 Mt |
| Afghanistan | 11.2 Mt |
| Brunei Darussalam | 10.8 Mt |
| Costa Rica | 9.6 Mt |
| El Salvador | 9.5 Mt |
| Mozambique | 8.7 Mt |
| Papua New Guinea | 8.7 Mt |
| Paraguay | 8.5 Mt |
| Republic of the Congo | 8.4 Mt |
| Benin | 8.3 Mt |
| Jamaica | 8.3 Mt |
| Cameroon | 8.3 Mt |
| Burkina Faso | 7.8 Mt |
| Mali | 7.8 Mt |
| Uruguay | 7.7 Mt |
| Estonia | 7.6 Mt |
| Kosovo | 7.6 Mt |
| Cyprus | 7.3 Mt |
| Uganda | 7.0 Mt |
| Botswana | 6.9 Mt |
| The Republic of North Macedonia | 6.6 Mt |
| Armenia | 6.4 Mt |
| Nicaragua | 6.4 Mt |
| Latvia | 6.3 Mt |
| Luxembourg | 6.3 Mt |
| Equatorial Guinea | 6.1 Mt |
| Mauritania | 5.8 Mt |
| Moldova, Republic of | 5.5 Mt |
| New Caledonia | 5.2 Mt |
| Mauritius | 4.9 Mt |
| Guinea | 4.7 Mt |
| Albania | 4.6 Mt |
| Madagascar | 4.6 Mt |
| DR Congo | 4.5 Mt |
| Gabon | 4.5 Mt |
| Guyana | 4.2 Mt |
| State of Palestine | 4.2 Mt |
| Reunion | 3.7 Mt |
| Namibia | 3.6 Mt |
| Niger | 3.6 Mt |
| Iceland | 3.5 Mt |
| South Sudan | 3.0 Mt |
| Togo | 3.0 Mt |
| Suriname | 2.7 Mt |
| Bahamas | 2.6 Mt |
| Montenegro | 2.6 Mt |
| Chad | 2.5 Mt |
| Maldives | 2.5 Mt |
| Guadeloupe | 2.1 Mt |
| Rwanda | 2.1 Mt |
| Malawi | 1.9 Mt |
| Martinique | 1.9 Mt |
| Bhutan | 1.8 Mt |
| Fiji | 1.8 Mt |
| Malta | 1.7 Mt |
| Sierra Leone | 1.7 Mt |
| Curaçao | 1.6 Mt |
| Haiti | 1.5 Mt |
| Barbados | 1.4 Mt |
| Somalia | 1.4 Mt |
| Eswatini | 1.1 Mt |
| French Polynesia | 1.0 Mt |
| Macao | 1.0 Mt |
| Aruba | 0.9 Mt |
| Belize | 0.9 Mt |
| Republic of The Gambia | 0.9 Mt |
| Burundi | 0.8 Mt |
| Eritrea | 0.8 Mt |
| Lesotho | 0.8 Mt |
| Liberia | 0.8 Mt |
| Sint Maarten (Dutch part) | 0.8 Mt |
| Antigua and Barbuda | 0.7 Mt |
| Cape Verde | 0.7 Mt |
| Seychelles | 0.7 Mt |
| Timor-Leste | 0.7 Mt |
| Comoros | 0.6 Mt |
| Djibouti | 0.6 Mt |
| French Guiana | 0.6 Mt |
| Greenland | 0.6 Mt |
| Saint Lucia | 0.6 Mt |
| Solomon Islands | 0.6 Mt |
| Andorra | 0.5 Mt |
| Bermuda | 0.5 Mt |
| Grenada | 0.4 Mt |
| Guinea-Bissau | 0.4 Mt |
| Turks and Caicos Islands | 0.4 Mt |
| Mayotte | 0.3 Mt |
| Samoa | 0.3 Mt |
| Saint Kitts and Nevis | 0.3 Mt |
| Saint Vincent and the Grenadines | 0.3 Mt |
| Vanuatu | 0.3 Mt |
| Anguilla | 0.2 Mt |
| Dominica | 0.2 Mt |
| Marshall Islands | 0.2 Mt |
| Palau | 0.2 Mt |
| Sao Tome and Principe | 0.2 Mt |
| Tonga | 0.2 Mt |
| Cook Islands | 0.1 Mt |
| Kiribati | 0.1 Mt |
| Liechtenstein | 0.1 Mt |
| Nauru | 0.1 Mt |
| Saint Pierre and Miquelon | 0.1 Mt |
| Montserrat | 0.0 Mt |
| Niue | 0.0 Mt |
| Saint Helena | 0.0 Mt |
| Tuvalu | 0.0 Mt |
The 10 countries that emit the most CO2
| # | Country | 2025 (Mt CO2) | Change vs 2024 | Share of world |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | China | 12,417 | +0.1% | 31.8% |
| 2 | United States | 5,036 | +2.5% | 12.9% |
| 3 | India | 3,203 | +0.9% | 8.2% |
| 4 | Russia | 1,767 | −1.2% | 4.5% |
| 5 | Japan | 960 | −1.0% | 2.5% |
| 6 | Iran | 855 | +1.5% | 2.2% |
| 7 | Indonesia | 822 | +3.8% | 2.1% |
| 8 | Saudi Arabia | 638 | +1.2% | 1.6% |
| 9 | South Korea | 581 | −0.7% | 1.5% |
| 10 | Germany | 573 | −0.1% | 1.5% |
| 47 | Chile | 76 | +3.1% | 0.2% |
Source: Global Carbon Budget 2026, National Fossil Carbon Emissions v0.1. The share is calculated on the file's world total, which includes international aviation and shipping and does not subtract cement carbonation, so it is higher than the headline 38.2 billion. The European Union emitted 2,405 million tonnes in 2025 (−0.3%).
The 2025 data confirm that last year US emissions rose 2.5% and Indonesia's 3.8%, while China barely changed. The report's 2026 projections point to declines in almost every major economy except India.
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See advertising optionsFrequently asked questions
How much CO2 will the world emit in 2026?
About 38.2 billion tonnes from fossil fuels, 0.4% less than in 2025. Including land-use change, 43.3 billion.
How much of the 1.5 °C carbon budget is left?
About 150 billion tonnes of CO2, less than four years of emissions at current rates.
How much CO2 does Chile emit?
76.3 million tonnes of fossil CO2 in 2025, 3.1% more than in 2024 and 17% below the 2019 peak.
What is the Global Carbon Budget?
The Global Carbon Project's annual CO2 assessment, produced by more than a hundred scientists and published in Earth System Science Data. It is presented every year during the COP.
